contributed to

6

forest and land use programmes

10

years working in environment & development

14+

publications

Conduct end-review on oil palm policy and livelihood project to assess the project across the five criteria for evaluation of development assistance OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC): relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact and sustainability. The main focus is on effectiveness (especially assessing results at outcome level) and prospects of sustainability. The review summarises lessons learnt for use in future projects (for local partners, CPI and Norad). Working with Sekala.

​

End-review of the Norad-supported project INS-16/0003 “Production and Protection Approach to Landscape Management (PALM)” by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) in Indonesia

Evaluated client relationship with Indonesian partner and made recommendations on how to improve programming and capacity building.

​

Evaluation of Rainforest Foundation Norway's Partner Organisation Forest Watch Indonesia

Work in collaboration with the M&E Team Leader and other members of the PASSES consortium. Provide expert guidance to the M&E activities for the PASSES programme in Indonesia to ensure the insights and learning from M&E are of high quality, and locally relevant. Provide guidance to ensure the PASSES M&E activities take account of other programmes operating in Indonesia, particularly the FLAG ands Forests 2020 programmes.

​

Monitoring and Evaluation of Peatland Assessment in SE Asia by Satellite (PASSES)

Wrote a policy options paper to improve the efficiency of financial reporting for climate change activities to be reported by developed and developing countries; present the policy options at Climate Change Expert Group Meeting in September 2017

​

Climate change financial reporting policy paper

Collected project pipeline and write the draft of Indonesia’s Green Climate Fund (GCF) country program for the Indonesia’s National Designated Authority of the GCF

​

Indonesia’s Green Climate Fund (GCF) country program

Facilitated the development of Forest 2020 program’s theory of change for Indonesia; monitor and evaluate the activities and provide recommendation that can be mainstreamed to program planning in order to improve the effectiveness of the program implementation

​

Monitoring and Evaluation of Forest 2020 Program

Wrote the third national communication of Indonesia to report climate change finance status to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; support Indonesia as a country delegation in the UNFCCC’s COP 22 in Marrakech, Morocco.

​

Indonesia Climate Finance Report

Identified policies related to coal subsidies in Indonesia and estimate the volume of subsidies using the methodology developed by the IISD with the global subsidy initiative (GSI).

​

Global subsidy initiative (GSI)

Led analyses on the Government of Indonesia’s monitoring systems, available information and targets and on value for money; participating in and supporting theories of change workshop and process, assessment of risk management at project and programme level, development of the baseline for the revised programme logframe, risk assessment and methodology, the annual review of the DFID FLAG

​

Forest Land Use and Governance (FLAG) annual review

Led and wrote a fiscal policy options paper which focuses on analysis and policy recommendations in the energy sector covering areas namely (i) fossil fuel related energies; (ii) renewable energies; (iii) energy efficiency; and (iv) intermediate forms of energy including natural and other forms of gas. Led two consultants to conduct two light touch studies: (1) financing options for rehabilitating degraded lands and (2) financing options for forest management unit.

​

Finance Policy Options Paper

Getting forest science to policy discourse: a theory-based outcome assessment of a global research programme

This paper presents an assessment of the outcomes of research carried out under the Sustainable Wetlands Adaptation and Mitigation Programme (SWAMP). SWAMP aimed to inform national and international climate policy and practice by developing tools and methods to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon stocks and flux in tropical wetlands due to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). This assessment modelled SWAMP's intended outcomes as a theory of change (ToC) and used qualitative methods to test the ToC and to evaluate whether and how the outcomes were achieved. It found that SWAMP research has helped raise academic and policy interest in wetlands, mangroves and peat forests as carbon reservoirs, and that SWAMP's recommendations informed policy discourse and supported the development of technical guidance and strategies of sustainable wetland management. However, the research had a weak effect on international and Indonesian climate change policies compared to other factors. The Paris Agreement and Indonesia's nationally determined contribution (NDC) do not include the quantification of carbon stocks from mangroves, which are not all located in the forest areas. Knowledge translation was achieved through a variety of mechanisms, with direct engagement identified as particularly important. The outcome evaluation approach proved useful as a way of conceptualising and organising the analysis of research impact on development outcomes.

2019

The Political Economy of Indonesia’s Renewable Energy Sector and Its Fiscal Policy Gap

This research paper identifies fiscal policy gaps that occur in Indonesia’s renewable energy (RE) sector and analyses its political economy. Primary data from 37 stakeholders and secondary data from fiscal policies from Indonesia’s 2007–2017 taken from Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) regulation databases. The fiscal policy data were analysed using a cluster approach and meta-synthesis method. The results show that Indonesia has experienced multi-faceted principal-agent problems between PT PLN, the agent with sole authority to manage electricity transmissions, and various principals, namely the Ministry of State Owned Enterprises (MSOE), the MEMR, the Ministry of Industry (MOI) as the intermediary between domestic and foreign RE industries, and the MOF. While changing the MEMR’s feed-in-tariff (FiT) policies sends an uncertain policy signal, the MOF’s fiscal incentive policies other than FiT to promote RE development in Indonesia remain sub-optimal; the fiscal policies required to incentivise a large volume of small- and medium-scale investment in RE are absent. Differentiated tax rates and tax-break periods for national and foreign companies on the micro, small and medium scales could significantly accelerate the development of RE by both domestic and foreign companies, supporting Indonesia in achieving its sustainable development goals and emission reduction targets under its nationally determined contribution.

2019

Evaluating policy-relevant research: lessons from a series of theory-based outcomes assessments

The increasing external demand from research funders and research managers to assess, evaluate and demonstrate the quality and the effectiveness of research is well known. Less discussed, but equally important, is the evolving interest and use of research evaluation to support learning and adaptive management within research programmes. This is especially true in a research-for-development context where research competes with other worthy alternatives for overseas development assistance funding and where highly complex social, economic and ecological environments add to evaluation challenges. Researchers and research managers need to know whether and how their interventions are working to be able to adapt and improve their programmes as well as to be able to satisfy their funders. This paper presents a theory-based research evaluation approach that was developed and tested on four policy-relevant research activities: a long-term forest management research programme in the Congo Basin; a large research programme on forests and climate change; a multi-country research project on sustainable wetlands management, and; a research project of the furniture value chain in one district in Indonesia. The first used Contribution Analysis and the others used purpose-built outcome evaluation approaches that combined concepts and methods from several approaches. Each research evaluation began with documentation of a theory of change (ToC) that identified key actors, processes and results. Data collected through document reviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were analysed to test the ToCs against evidence of outcomes in the form of discourse, policy formulation and practice change. The approach proved valuable as a learning tool for researchers and research managers and it has facilitated communication with funders about actual and reasonable research contributions to change. Evaluations that employed a participatory approach with project scientists and partners noticeably supported team learning about past work and about possible adaptations for the future. In all four cases, the retrospective ToC development proved challenging and resulted in overly-simplistic ToCs. Further work is needed to draw on social scientific theories of knowledge translation and policy processes to develop and further test more sophisticated theories of change. This theory-based approach to research evaluation provides a valuable means of assessing research effectiveness (summative value) and supports learning and adaptation (formative value) at the project or programme scale. The approach is well suited to the research-for-development projects represented by the case studies, but it should be applicable to any research that aspires to have a societal impact. This article is published as part of a collection on the future of research assessment.

2017

Climate mitigation finance in leveraging private investments in Indonesia.

This paper identifies and reviews arrangements by which climate mitigation finance taken from official development assistance (ODA) is used to leverage private-sector investment in Indonesia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. It analyses eleven principal mitigation projects taken from 2010–2015 OECD Creditor Reporting System data, using an institutional analysis and development framework. The results show that within Indonesia’s complex private-sector history and strong patronage system, mitigation finance has been deployed to support a number of early engagement activities with the private sector at the policy and administrative levels, with a less focus on the political level. Engagements to leverage private investment are initially made through research, prefeasibility studies and capacity-building. At later stages, mitigation finance offers the private sector opportunities to undertake pilot activities. Some pilot activities have had successful outcomes, with private sector entities acting as co-financiers and self-investors in large-scale infrastructure projects via arrangements such as public-private partnerships. Greater understanding of the history and political context of Indonesia’s private sector is expected to improve donor and recipient strategies for leveraging private investment in risky projects, developing bankable business plans as well as providing accountability for the use of public finance in business-related international development activities.

2017

Enhancing Mitigation and Finance Reporting: Building on Current Experience to Meet the Paris Agreement Requirements

The future enhanced transparency framework outlined in the Paris Agreement and its accompanying Decision is to build on, enhance and eventually supersede the existing measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) system established under the Cancún Agreements. This paper explores the issues of “building on” and “enhancing” as they relate to the biennial reporting of information on mitigation and finance, by drawing lessons from the existing MRV system and examining the Paris Agreement’s provisions. It examines four areas: greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, reporting on progress with the mitigation component of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), finance provided and mobilised, and financial support received and needed. The paper also highlights the challenges met by Parties while reporting information for these areas to date, and provides suggestions on how forthcoming modalities, procedures and guidelines (MPGs) might reduce these difficulties.

2017

Allocating Climate Mitigation Finance: A Comparative Analysis of Five Major Green Donors

A mitigation finance allocation framework (global needs, recipients’ performance, recipients’ needs and donors’ interests) is introduced as a way to identify determinants according to which individual donors allocate climate mitigation finance across developing countries. A two-part model was used to analyse a three-dimensional Rio Marker panel data set (donor-recipient-time), representing 5 green donors and 180 developing countries in the time period 1998–2010. Overall, while the determinants that the donors used to allocate mitigation finance across countries are heterogeneous, their responses to global needs are almost homogenous. Developing countries with large carbon sinks and good institutional performance tend to be the main destination for major green donors’ mitigation finance. Unsurprisingly, as with environmental aid, and aid more broadly, Japan and France’s allocation of mitigation finance is influenced by their geopolitical interests, which may divert it from its principal objective of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. One new finding is Japan, Germany, France and Norway’s emerging interest in allocating mitigation finance to their Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) host countries, where they may seek to catalyse their private companies’ investment in green projects but risk overcrowding CDM host countries and promoting global inequality.

2016

Climate Mitigation Finance across Developing Countries: What Are the Major Determinants?

This empirical study assesses the relationship between the characteristics of developing countries and the amount of official climate mitigation finance inflow. A two-part model and robustness checks were used to analyse 1998–2010 Rio Marker data on 180 developing countries. The results show that developing countries with higher CO2 intensity, larger carbon sinks, lower per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and good governance tend to be selected as recipients of climate mitigation finance, and receive more of it. CO2 emission is not used as a determinant of mitigation finance until the actual financial disbursement. Poverty aid tends to be allocated to countries with low CO2 emissions, possibly to avoid diverting aid from poorer developing countries. However, such a diversion is unavoidable if the share of mitigation finance in climate finance and in overall official development assistance (ODA) continues to escalate. This study calls for an equitable allocation of total ODA mitigation and adaptation finance in addition to the 0.7% ODA/gross national income target, and for transparent criteria and the verification of reporting on the allocation of mitigation finance.

2015

Donor characteristics and the allocation of aid to climate mitigation finance

We make use of a panel dataset of 22 donor countries from 1998 to 2009 to examine the links between donor characteristics and the share of overseas development assistance allocated to climate mitigation finance. We find that donors with a larger green domestic budget tend to allocate a smaller portion of overseas aid to mitigation finance (possibly as a result of a competing interest between spending on domestic environmental projects and international climate projects). The opposite holds for donor countries with better institutions (governance) that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. We also find important discrepancies when comparing the effects of donor characteristics on committed versus disbursed mitigation finance (as a share of aid). For the latter, only commitment to the Kyoto Protocol appears to be of high statistical significance. Read More:

2015

The Coordination of Climate Finance in Indonesia

Key institutions in efforts to implement these measures include DNPI, the National Council on Climate Change established by the former president, the Ministry of Finance, the planning Ministry Bappenas and its Indonesian Climate Change Trust Fund, and the REDD+ Agency. Financial regulators are also beginning to encourage green investment, and there are nascent efforts to engage the private sector to make environmentally and socially beneficial investments.  While the ICCTF was intended to foster a coordinated approach on climate finance, in practice it is one of the smallest actors in the domestic climate finance architecture in part because of its modest levels of capitalisation, but also because the arrangements for the Fund did not give key actors other than Bappenas a clear role. The Fund has also struggled to meet international fiduciary standards.  Existing international climate funds have been docked in one of the key ministries involved, and have rarely made proactive efforts to engage the range of relevant national stakeholders, notably from the private sector and local government.  There is a recognised opportunity for new climate funds such as the GCF to work in collaboration with the NDA to take a more proactive approach to engaging diverse stakeholders, and put in place new operational processes that can foster progress in achieving mitigation and adaptation outcomes in the context of national climate and development priorities.

2014

Global Climate Mitigation Finance: The Determinants of Its Provision and Allocation

This research finds that donors’ emission levels, CO2 intensity, commitment to the Kyoto Protocol, political views and domestic environmental spending significantly influence their allocation of mitigation finance and the proportion of their total ODA that they designate to it, and that recipient developing countries’ potential for mitigation, such as their environmental assets and emission problems, and their institutional and economic factors affect how mitigation finance is allocated to them. The findings show that donors tend to provide loans to recipients with large emission problems and grants to those with large environmental assets. Across donors, the determinants of mitigation finance tend to be heterogeneous. These findings lead to a discussion whether mitigation finance is a perverse incentive for developing countries’ emission mitigation and whether it will permanently remain reliant on ODA. . The overall research gives guidance and reflection of the future of official mitigation finance.

2014

Mobilising International Climate Finance: Lessons from the Fast-Start Finance Period

Developed countries report that they mobilised $35 billion in international climate finance for developing countries through the “fast-start finance” period from 2010 through 2012. This study examines the reported contribution in detail, revealing lessons for mobilising and targeting climate finance over the coming decade.

2013

Donor Characteristics and the Supply of Climate Change Aid

This paper examines the links between donor country characteristics and the amount of aid allocated to climate-change related activities (hereafter ‘climate aid’). We find the share of environmental expenditure in the government budget and the GDP per capita level of donors to significantly influence the amount of aid given to tackle climate change. The share of environmental expenditure positively affects the amount of aid committed to tackle climate change, while, paradoxically, wealthier donors appear to be less generous in terms of climate aid. We examine separately the impact of donor characteristics on climate aid commitment and disbursement, as well as the gap between the two. Furthermore, we observe that many donor countries underreport data on climate aid provision – we discuss potential explanations behind this, although we find weak statistical evidence of a selection bias of our original estimates.

2012